How to bet and minimise loss risk
1. Cover most possible correct scores outcome, i.e:
place multiple single bets on the most probable regular time correct scores; for instance:
1-0, 0-11-1, 2-2
2-1, 1-2
3-2, 2-3 or 2-0, 0-2
This covers 80% of the most match outcomes
If you place 5EUR stake on each (8x5=40EUR total) you are covered for 80% and have a great chance to win with one of the bets.
In most cases (depending on the odds) you will win more then you invested.
2. Use double chance option i.e. 1X, X2, 12
This is suitable for the games which are hard to predict where both teams have equal chances to win and there is no clear favorite. Betting on double chance gives more flexibility since no correct score prediction is required. The odds, however, are usually quite low, so double chance betting requires higher stakes investment to miximise you winning potential.1X (Team playing home wins or draw, no matter which score)
X2 (Draw or team playing away wins)
12 (Any of the two teams wins with any score, but not draw)
3. Study most popular score outcomes:
Football is often marked as a spectacular and exciting sport but when you look at the detail, the majority of matches can be pretty low on scores. In fact, the most unexciting result, 0-0, occurs in 8% of the time. This means that 1 of 12 matches you can hit that 0-0 correct score result. On averages, the number of goals in a match is typically 2.60 which means that you would expect to see a goal around every 35 minutes or so. If you split those 2.60 goals equally, you only have 1.30 goals per team. Truncate the 0.30 off both and you are left with the most common score 1:1
Around 12% of all matches end in 1:1 draw.
Statistics show that if the home team scores first then they have, on average a 75% chance of going on to win. If the away team scores first then it’s a 60% chance. If either team take a 2-0 lead, there is a very high likelihood of a win.
Matches with significant numbers of goals and excitement are rare and not considered the norm. Even matches where strong teams meet weak teams produce only just over 3 goals on average.
Playing home advantage is hard to explain, apart of obvious psychological aspects. On average, home advantage is worth about 0.40 goals per game. So if you now split the 2.60 goals between the home and away teams including the home advantage factor, you now end up with 1.70 goals for the home team and 0.90 for the away team.
The most common home win score is 1:0, this is also the most common away score and it also reinforces how 1:1 must be the most common score overall.
Add up these most common scores with no goals at all and they add up in total to around 40% of all the total number of correct scores you will see in a football match. In fact, if you forecast a draw or 1:0 to either side you will be right 60% of the time.
Also it’s worth noting that if you have one team higher than another in a league, then that is enough to cancel out home advantage and increase the chances of a draw.
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